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ZiPS projects mediocrity at best for Cleveland in 2021
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Thanksgiving was about a week ago, but I still feel like a turkey. As I sit at home waiting for some baseball news, my neck is out, just waiting for the blade to come down and sever Francisco Lindor from Cleveland. The pace of news these days makes things even more agonizing. As information trickles out it all small and mid-size market teams shedding payroll like antigens and making the market for Lindor services seem even more paltry.Then Dan Szymborski does his thing and drops the 2021 ZiPS projections at FanGraphs and reminds me of my misery anew. Now, this is not Szymborski fault, but as he accurately notes in his preamble, Cleveland has made it abundantly clear that Lindor will be wearing another jersey come March David Justice Shower Curtain, despite the fact that he a superstar entering the prime years of what could be a Hall of Fame career. In a bit of good news, Lindor is not projected by ZiPS to be the best Cleveland batter, an honor that belongs to Jos Ramrez.Despite a Hall of Fame comp to Chipper Jones, Ramrez alone does not an offense make, and the next five batters  are not likely to be in Cleveland next year either. After Lindor, Nolan Jones is the next-best projected batter, at 2.3 fWAR, but as he has yet to bat above the Double-A level it a bad bet to expect him to crack the Opening Day roster. The likes of Yasiel Puig, Csar Hernndez https://www.baseballstoreonline.com/Rocky_Colavito-610, and Carlos Santana come in at fourth, fifth, and sixth, respectively, but the chance that any produce their projected >1.8 fWAR in Cleveland is slim to none. The best hitters that will likely suit up for the Tribe are Franmil Reyes , Jordan Luplow , and Roberto Prez . It worth noting  that Owen Miller is also projected to compile 1.2 fWAR despite not playing above Double-A.And with the dearth of offensive production projected around Ramrez, Szymborski is right to conclude that trading him could be logical. As good as Cleveland pitching is projected to be, it won paper over a replacement-level offense. Thus, sending Ramrez owner-friendly contract out would yield the team quite a bit of talent that would not hit the bottom line for many years  Keith Hernandez Face Mask. Despite the issues on offense, the pitching really is special. Shane Bieber has long been a ZiPS favorite and is projected to follow up his Cy Young campaign with 4.6 fWAR, comparable to Roy Halladay. Carlos Carrasco is pegged for 2.7 fWAR and comparable to Orel Hershiser, which ain too shabby. The rest of the rotation is considered average https://www.baseballstoreonline.com/Jake_Taylor-570, but many teams would kill for an average back end with the likes of Zach Plesac , Aaron Civale , and the combination of Cal Quantrill , Joey Cantillo , Jean Carlos Meja , Adam Scott , Jefry Rodriguez , Eli Morgan , or Triston McKenzie . In the projections, ZiPS seems to be a fan of the Tribe bullpen as well, with big expectations for Emmanuel Clase  as he comes back from suspension and a solid sophomore season for James Karinchak . With so much potential from the pitching factory, there exists a timeline in which the Indians retain Lindor and Ramrez and push the chips in for 2021 by acquiring more competent bats https://www.baseballstoreonline.com/Bert_Blyleven-533. But as seen with the waiving of Brad Hand , the appetite for wins in Cleveland is dwarfed by the desire to save money. The full projections and Szymborski text are well worth your time, just don expect to be pardoned a trip to the chopping block.So I wait, turkey that I am, for the blade. At least these ZiPS projections have made it pretty clear what is coming so it will not be a surprise when it finally does fall.
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